Projection Bias: Why We Assume Others Feel What We Feel

You’re exhausted after a long week and assume your friend wants to cancel plans too. You’re excited about a new idea and believe your whole team will share your enthusiasm. You buy winter coats in July because you’re cold in a movie theater.

We assume that others think like us, feel like us, and want what we want—right now and in the future.

That’s projection bias. And it leads us to misread situations, misjudge people, and overcommit ourselves.

What This Bias Is

Projection bias is the cognitive distortion that causes us to assume that others share our current mental or emotional state—or that our future selves will. We over-project our present experience onto other people and other times.

This happens whether we’re tired, hungry, anxious, elated, or impulsive. We take that now and stretch it across everyone and everything else.

Real-Life Examples of the Bias in Action

• Workplace Decisions: A stressed-out manager assumes the team is equally overwhelmed and cancels a project unnecessarily.

• Relationship Conflict: During an argument, each partner assumes the other is equally angry or hurt, escalating tension instead of seeking clarity.

• Election Misreads: People assume that most voters share their political concerns—because that’s what they care about most.

• Impulse Buying: You stock up on food while hungry, believing you'll want all those items later. But your appetite is now—not future-proof.

• Time Management: You commit to an event weeks in advance, imagining you'll feel the same excitement later. When the day comes, your mood doesn’t match.

Why It Matters

Projection bias causes breakdowns in communication, poor planning, and relational blind spots. It’s one of the fastest ways we confuse empathy with assumption.

• It over-personalizes perspective: We forget that others experience the world differently—internally and externally.

• It distorts future planning: We think our present emotional state will be permanent, making us overconfident or overly cautious.

• It inhibits understanding: If someone isn’t reacting the way we expect, we take it as indifference or disrespect.

• It creates emotional misfires: We might try to “solve” someone else’s problem by treating it like our own—when it’s not.

The Psychology Behind It

Projection bias is deeply tied to how we form expectations and social inferences.

1. Egocentric Anchoring

We tend to use ourselves as the default reference point for how people think and feel. It's cognitively easy—but emotionally inaccurate.

2. Affective Forecasting Errors

We’re poor at predicting how we’ll feel in the future. We assume our current emotions are stable and will influence our later decisions.

3. False Consensus

We believe more people agree with us than actually do, which reinforces our tendency to project emotions and values.

4. Lack of Perspective-Taking

True empathy requires stepping out of our internal state—but projection pulls us deeper into it.

How to See Through It (Bias Interrupt Tools)

1. Ask: “What else could they be feeling?”
This question challenges your default assumption and opens space for alternative explanations.

2. Name your state
Are you tired, stressed, elated, nervous? Acknowledge it. That emotion is likely tinting how you view others.

3. Time travel mentally
Imagine how you’ll feel under different circumstances—not how you feel right now. Check your decision against that future.

4. Clarify instead of assuming
When in doubt, ask. It's more honest—and more accurate—than guessing based on your own experience.

5. Use structured empathy tools
Journaling from another’s perspective or using role reversal techniques can help widen your emotional aperture.

Related Biases

• False Consensus Effect: Overestimating how much others share your beliefs.

• Affective Forecasting: Misjudging future feelings based on current emotion.

• Egocentric Bias: Prioritizing your own perspective as central.

Final Reflection

Projection bias makes us feel connected—but only to ourselves.

When we assume our emotions are shared, we short-circuit real understanding. We act on guesses. We plan around moods. We communicate with ghosts of our own state.

To connect more deeply—with others and with your future self—step outside the mirror of your moment.

See beyond what you feel. That’s where truth starts.